How the Summer Box Office Went From Tragic to Magic

Minions, Will Smith, Deadpool, and Joy from 'Inside Out' in front of fireworks — Illustration by Madison Ketcham

An exhausted Ryan Reynolds was overwhelmed when the opening-day grosses started pouring in on July 26 for Deadpool & Wolverine, the third entry in his audacious superhero series. By July 27, the impossible was within reach: The Marvel Studios pic was going to cross $200 million in its domestic debut, something no one thought possible for an R-rated film. The final number came in at a stunning $211 million, the sixth-biggest opening of all time and $79 million ahead of the previous R-rated record-holder, 2016’s Deadpool.

“I’ve been in some form of writing, producing, performing, editing and marketing of Deadpool & Wolverine for three years. I’d say it’s hard work — but it’s closer to obsession,” Reynolds told The Hollywood Reporter upon returning from a whirlwind global publicity tour with his besties, co-star Hugh Jackman and director Shawn Levy.

Deadpool & Wolverine is the latest in a string of surprise mega-success stories at the summer box office, reversing a downward spiral in the first half of the year that was due in large measure to a lack of steady product resulting from Hollywood’s historic 2023 labor strikes. To borrow from Deadpool’s foul-mouthed vernacular, the summer box office was anything but fucking sizzling when the season officially kicked off at the beginning of May. Domestic box office revenue was down nearly 28 percent in the second quarter — April and May were the main culprits — prompting renewed worry that moviegoing would never recover from COVID and the rise of streaming. (Heading into the summer season, studios estimated that as much as 15 percent of moviegoers who used to frequent multiplexes and art house cinemas have never returned.)

But then June Gloom turned into a June Bloom that continues to provide bountiful bouquets. Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die, reuniting Will Smith and Martin Lawrence, planted the seeds of the recovery in early June before Pixar’s Inside Out 2 came along and proved to be exactly what kids needed to get off the couch. Illumination and Universal’s Despicable Me 4 also exceeded expectations, as did Amblin’s Twisters and Neon’s horror pic Longlegs, which has surpassed the Oscar-winning Parasite to become the indie distributor’s top-grossing film ever. So much for the sky-is-falling on theatrical.

Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine was indeed the icing on the cake, setting off a fireworks display of epic proportion that has shattered record after record. It earned another $96.8 million over the Aug. 2-4 weekend, the eighth biggest second weekend of all time and putting its domestic haul at $395.4 million, enough to finally fulfill Reynolds’ goal of passing up Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ and become the top-grossing R-rated pic of all time domestically. Globally, it hit $824.2 million on Aug. 4 as it prepares to join the billion-dollar club over the Aug 9-11 weekend. Now at No. 3 on the list of top-grossing R-rated films at the global box office, it will easily shoot up to No. 1 once it overtakes Oppenheimer ($975.3 million) and then Joker ($1.07 billion).

As of August 4, the year-over-year deficit in terms of domestic box office revenue had narrowed to 16.4 percent in a win for the industry overall, and the Disney film empire in particular. Just as Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine has reinvigorated the superhero genre, so has Pixar’s Inside Out 2 established that the storied animation studio is finding its stride after a series of stumbles.

And, combined with Universal and Illumination’s Despicable Me 4, Inside Out 2 has revived the lagging family box office. Not to mention that Inside Out 2 made history in collecting $1.55 billion globally and becoming the top-grossing animated film of all time. “We’ve had a great summer,” says Alan Bergman, co-chairman of Disney Entertainment. “And it reinforces that when you deliver quality films, audiences really enjoy going to theaters. As we look at our slate going forward, we’re encouraged by the momentum we have and hope it continues for the entire industry.”

Disney is back on top in terms of market share — it has crossed $3 billion in global ticket sales — and will likely be the only studio this year with back-to-back billion-dollar earners. Disney and 20th Century’s The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was also something of a sleeper hit, and was the top film of May by a mile with $171 million in domestic ticket sales.

Usually, a Marvel superhero movie kicks off the summer season, but Deadpool & Wolverine had to push back its release date when production was shut down because of the actors strike, so Universal’s The Fall Guy took the high-profile spot. Unfortunately, the movie didn’t galvanize moviegoers, topping out at $92.9 million domestically and $178.1 million worldwide. George Miller’s high-profile Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, from Warner Bros., ran out of gas in its Memorial Day opening, topping out at only $67.4 million in North America over the three-day holiday weekend and a fraught $172 million globally.

Then Bad Boys: Ride or Die came along on June 7 and surged to $193 million domestically and $398.5 million worldwide. Paramount’s A Quiet Place: Day One, which also overperformed in earning $137 million in North America and $256 million globally, helped keep the momentum going. While it never landed at No.1 — instead Inside Out 2 stayed atop the chart for three weekends — it provided consumers with another choice.

By the time July came around, the box office was on fire in a dramatic turnaround, thanks to a steady supply of tentpoles and other event pics that collectively resulted in strong grosses week after week.

Everyone was terrified about how the latter half of July 2024 would stack up against July 2023 because of Barbie and Oppenheimer. It wasn’t as bad as everyone feared, thanks to the ongoing strength of holdovers and the entry of Twisters, starring man-of-the-moment Glen Powell and Daisy Edgar-Jones. Twisters, distributed by Universal domestically, opened to $81 million over the July 17-19 weekend, with total ticket sales for all films hitting $150.4 million, 51.7 percent down from the corresponding weekend last year, when Barbenheimer emerged. The decline could have been far worse.

Both Twisters and Despicable Me 4 have remained champs, earning $274.1 million globally — including a stellar $195 million domestically — and $745.6 million globally, respectively.

Another feat: The weekend of July 26-28 — Deadpool 3’s launching pad — was actually up over the second weekend of Barbie and Oppenheimer. All told, July generated $1.2 billion in domestic ticket sales, the first time that mark has been hit since July 2023. And Deadpool helped propel overall ticket sales to $418 million in its first week (July 26-Aug. 1), the biggest week of the year.

Summer 2023 hit roughly $4 billion in total revenue. This summer isn’t expected to reach those levels, but if grosses stay steady — upcoming event pics to track include 20th Century and Disney’s Alien: Romulus and Sony’s It Ends With Us, starring Blake Lively — revenue could reach $3.6 billion, a respectable number considering that May was a wash and the summer box office season started in June.

“One of the most remarkable summer seasons on record is in the home stretch and much can be learned from the emotional box office ups and downs that have captivated industry watchers from the first weekend in May,” says Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “This has arguably been more interesting, challenging and revelatory summer than last year irrespective of where the numbers land on Labor Day.”