Box Office Preview: Can Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively Pull Off Barbenheimer 2.0?

The last time a married couple had their films top the domestic box office was 34 years ago. In 1990, Bruce Willis’ Die Hard 2 stayed atop the chart in its second weekend with $14.5 million, and Demi Moore’s Ghost opened in second place with $12.2 million, not adjusted for inflation.

Get ready to dust the webs off of that stat. This weekend, Ryan Reynolds‘ blockbuster Deadpool & Wolverine will stay No. 1 in its third weekend, with $50 million to $60 million. Blake Lively — his wife — is virtually assured bragging rights to second place with her new film, Columbia and Wayfarer’s It Ends With Us. (Lionsgate’s big-budget Borderlands is also opening, but is looking like a $10 to $15 million bust).

Some are pitching the dueling Reynolds-Lively movies as a showdown, but the opposite is the case, according to insiders. Reynolds, a marketing savant, and Lively hope the two very different films result in a Barbenheimer moment whereby both films become top of mind. It Ends With Us is one of the only films in the marketplace for adult female audiences.

It Ends With Us, based on the best-selling romance novel of the same name by Colleen Hoover, stars Lively as Lily Bloom, a woman who overcomes a traumatic childhood to embark on a new life in Boston and fulfill a lifelong dream of opening her own business. A chance meeting with charming neurosurgeon Ryle Kincaid (Justin Baldoni) sparks an intense connection, but as the two fall deeply in love, Lily begins to see sides of Ryle that remind her of her parents’ relationship. When Lily’s first love, Atlas Corrigan (Brandon Sklenar), suddenly reenters her life, her relationship with Ryle is upended, and Lily realizes she must learn to rely on her own strength to make an impossible choice for her future.

Tracking shows It Ends With Us opening in the $23 million range, a solid start for a female-skewing pic. Exhibitors are much more bullish based on the strength of presales and Lively’s fan base. Also, it is the first of Hoover’s books to be adapted for the big screen. The film is directed by Baldoni and cost a relatively modest $25 million to produce before marketing.

Reynolds and Lively have been supporting each other’s films in major ways, and it may not entirely be a coincidence that they opened so close to each other. It Ends With Us was originally supposed to hit heaters June 21, but was pushed back to Aug. 9. Lively is one of the producers of the film, and likely had some sway when the new date was selected.

Earlier this week, Reynolds posted a humorous Instagram clip of himself, his mother (Tammy Reynolds) and Deadpool & Wolverine co-star Hugh Jackman separately interrogating Sklenar during a recent press day for Lively’s new film.

Among other tidbits, Reynolds talks about being on meth. And when Sklenar suggests they take a break, Reynolds quips, “From Blake, sure.” Reynolds’ mother was just sharp: “Well, it’s not every day the mother-in-law of the leading lady gets to interview the love interest and the man trying to replace my sweet little gummy bear, Ryan.” 

Jackman and Reynolds — who are besties — also flanked Lively as she walked the pink carpet of It Ends With Us‘ world premiere earlier this week.

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